Steve Scalise apparently doesn’t understand political campaigns or polling data
As today’s party primaries come to a close, the focus on the First Congressional District race (a seat I once ran for with Steve Scalise until he chickened out of the 2004 election) is pointing to a poll released by the Jim Harlan campaign.
It seems like the Jim Harlan campaign, who has spent a lot of money (far more than any Democrat recently), has pulled within 11 points of Steve Scalise. Jason Hebert, a spokesperson for Steve Scalise, said this:
Why should anyone believe these numbers?
Why? Let’s see. First and foremost, if you are trying to make money as a credible pollster, you better use appropriate polling methods and give good results. I doubt the Kitchen’s Group (who conducted the Harlan poll) wants to be the subject of criticism because of flawed polling data.
Then you have other reasons. Harlan has spent a lot more money than Scaise has on this election. He has paid for advertising during political shows (like the debates) and may have effectively convinced some voters that Steve Scalise is not right for LA01.
Finally, even though Harlan has a D behind his name, he has been very vocal about being pro-life and pro-second amendment. And perhaps this is the kind of Democrat that the plurality of Democrats in the 1st Congressional District have been waiting for.
And if Steve Scalise doesn’t understand polling and how spending money in an election campaign can be effective, then perhaps Steve Scalise doesn’t quite have what it takes to be the Congressman for Louisiana’s First District.