Liberty and Justice for All!

Since others are jumping in with their guesses, here are my predictions.

This is what I feel is the absolute maximum number of votes that Barack Obama can get.

However, this is the map that I predict will win Obama the election.

I also predict that Bill Jefferson will defeat Helena Moreno and move on to the general election. Personally, I have some real problems with voting with Helena Moreno (namely her acceptance of the endorsement of the R.D.O.). However, I just cannot bring myself to “vote for the crook”.

Finally, I predict that Landrieu will defeat Kennedy for the Senate seat but that the Democrats will only manage to get 59 seats (though I hope I am wrong and we manage 60).

Update: I think we may have 60 in the bag, thanks to Chambliss refering to black voters as “the other folks” who are voting. Good job Saxby. Way to show your true colors.

The numbers are astounding and these are current as of Monday at 6:30 (people still voted after 6:30 because of long lines).

Democrats lead Republicans in early voting by a nearly 2 to 1 margin and account for nearly 60% of the early voters.

If McCain has any weakness in Louisiana (I am not saying he has one, but if he does) it has to be the fact that Democrats have a much better get out the vote machine so far. If this keeps up through tomorrow (the end of early voting) then election day may be very interesting.

And even if this doesn’t help Obama win Louisiana, it has to help Mary Landrieu (who just nabbed another big Republican endorsement in Dave Treen).

Roger Villere (i.e. Florist Gump) is looking for a way to put a “meaningful” censure on those Republicans who put the needs of Louisiana over the needs of the Party by crossing party lines and endorsing a *gasp* Democrat.

Perhaps those Republicans didn’t consider themselves to be political whores who, unlike Villere, are looking for results for their voters instead of looking to just put an R in the seat (even though that “R” was a “D” in 2004, and according to the Republican party in 2004 was the more liberal Democrat in the race).

A caller to the Jeff Crouereshow on AM 990 this morning doubted that Landrieu would ever endorse someone who was not a Democrat. I had to call in and remind them that Landrieu did not endorse the Democrat against Joe Lieberman in his most recent election. Jeff pointed out that this was not an example of her supporting a Republican. However, it is an example of her rejecting the Democrat for another candidate who is not a Democrat.

Landrieu has also been a moderate in the Senate and has crossed party lines to get important legislation passed for Louisiana. And in the upcoming Senate, where Democrats are going to have control, it would be kind of silly to elect a freshman Republican who will be incapable of getting anything done for our State.

My vote will be going for Mary Landrieu.

John Kennedy is complaining that Landrieu hasn’t committed to debate on his timetable. Her response?

“Sen. Landrieu looks forward to a series of debates with Mr. Kennedy in October when the important work of this Congress is completed. Meanwhile, she will be travelling to every part of the state to discuss the merits of the New ERA energy proposal, which is a very significant piece of legislation that will lower gas prices and transition the country to alternative fuels and energy independence.

“In the meantime, if John Kennedy wants to debate before then, he should debate himself given that he has taken both sides of every issue.”

Excellent.

Yes, Landrieu should debate and it seems that she will do it in October. Seems like Kennedy is making much ado about nothing.

That is an old quote from The Gipper himself, Ronald Reagan. And the Louisiana Republicans have dusted that old tired line out to try and convince current Democrats to turn over a new leaf (just like John N. Kennedy did).

Of course there is probably some truth Reagan’s statement. See, the Democratic Party stopped being the party that used the mantra of “states rights” in order to keep black people as second class citizens and started to become the party that fought for civil rights legislation, equality, and liberty.

Reagan, on the other hand, announced the official start to his campaign in Neshoba County Mississippi, the site where three black civil rights activists were murdered in 1964. Reagan campaigned on the “states rights” platform and utilized the “southern strategy” to attract the racists who also felt that the Democratic Party left them too. Since Reagan felt that the place where three black civil rights activists were murdered was the best way to start off his “states rights” campaign then sure, the Democratic Party left him behind … in the dust.
You can see the front and back of the flier (or should I say f-liar) my wife received in the mail today.

Not only does the f-liar have a picture of the Gipper, but it also has one of the Governor himself. It asks Democrats to “join Bobby Jindal in the Republican Party”.

Most noticeable are the prominent Democrats that are pictured on the f-liar. You have Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Kathleen Blanco and everyone’s favorite Bill Jefferson. Absent is Mary Landrieu (who is likely to win re-election), Mitch Landrieu (who got more votes that Jindal statewide) and other Louisiana Democrats who tend to be a tad bit more Conservative on the issues than those pictured (with the exception of pro-life Blanco whose only difference with Jindal on the pro-life stance is that she has a heart and would allow exceptions for rape and the life of the woman).

The f-liar says what “Democrats Believe In”.

The first lie is that we believe in no new oil exploration. Well, there are 10,000 oil leases that are not being drilled on yet. Seems to me that the Democrats would not have allowed those leases to be opened if they are opposed to new drilling.

The next lie is that Democrats support Amnesty for illegal aliens. The truth is that Democrats in Congress supported a plan that would require any person here illegally to get back in the line and pay a fine for their crime before ever getting a chance at citizenship. Forcing someone to pay a fine does not sound like amnesty to me. Of course, the Louisiana Republican Party and Florist Gump himself forgets that Republicans don’t want illegal immigration to go away because that would mean their corporate buddies would have to hire people at the minimum wage. I would also point out that the plan Democrats supported was called the ________ - Kennedy Fair Plan. Anyone? Anyone? The McCain – Kennedy Fair plan. So if this plan is so called “amnesty” then I guess anyone who supports McCain wants “amnesty” too!

The next lie is that Democrats support tax increases on the middle class. This is, again, untrue. Democrats support eliminating the bush tax cuts for people making $200,000 and above. In fact, here is Obama’s tax plan.You can plainly see that he wouldn’t increase taxes on the middle class.

In fact, when I campaigned for Congress in 2004 I proposed that we give a housing tax credit to everyone and not require it be itemized. Obama supports:

establishing a universal credit for the 10 million homeowners who do not itemize their deductions

Good to see someone else agrees with me. 

They tell the truth about Government run health care. Democrats do support that. Of course, if you want to look at failures in Government run healthcare you only need to look at the tenure of Bobby Jindal and his time as head of the Louisiana Department of Health. During his “leadership”, Louisiana’s health ranking dropped to dead last. But that is just typical of Republicans. They cry about how awful government is and then spend their entire political careers proving it

The f-liar asks “what do you have in common with these Democrats”? Well, if I had to make a flier of my own, it would probably look like this. (Well, actually I would spend a lot more time on it, not do it in paint, and not base it off the old one, but you get the point).

Anyway, it sure seems that the Republicans are scared that they won’t be able to get John “the liberal candidate in the 2004 Senate race” Kennedy to beat Landrieu. I am happy my wife got the f-liar. It was good for a laugh and it is good to see the Republicans wasting money on that garbage.

John Neely Kennedy*.

He probably felt that he would be able to ride the Republican coat tails of Bobby Jindal by defecting to the Republican party and running against Mary Landrieu. Unfortunately for him, Jindal proved that he had no spine and that he was willing to go against both the will of the people and the promise he made during his campaign.

Yes there are other losers. Jindal lost the respect of many of his fiscal conservative supporters. Several legislators are getting recall petitions submitted against them with more likely to come. The Media is being criticised for not doing their job in the 2007 election. But Kennedy was going for statewide election against a Democrat in a state that is turning redder and redder as we speak. The support of Jindal would have helped him immeasurably. Now, the support of Jindal will likely hurt JNK more than it helps. And while i never actually thought that JNK could win, the likelihood of him winning now is much less. And that, my friends, makes me smile.

* speaking politically only.

Not the former President, but our party hopping state treasurer who is mocked on this website. This one should be a hoot! The Reduct box adds more.

h/t to Oyster.

Polling data shows that Mary Landrieu has a small lead over turncoat John Kennedy in the 2008 Senate race.

I think these upcoming elections will be interesting. Closed primaries make it so only one Republican and one Democrat can be in the race. However, there can be many different “no party” candidates who decide to run as well. This leaves the door open for someone to win with a plurality and it does not require a simple majority. It will be interesting to see the faces on the Republicans who supported the closed primary election system if Landrieu does win but does so with less than 50%.

Of course, considering that Mary Landrieu is the actual Louisiana Congressperson to get us our fair share of oil revenue (not Bobby Jindal) and she also got us additional recovery funds, I find it hard to see how she will not get elected to another term. Oyster has more on this over at YRHT.

As if we didn’t see this coming from a mile away. Did anyone think that John Kennedy was going to do anything else after he switched parties? We all know that John Kennedy wanted to be a Senator since he ran and lost against David Vitter in 2004. With Louisiana’s new closed primary system for U.S. House and Senate seats, there would be no way that he would be able to win the closoed primary as a Democrat. So what does he do? He becomes another political opportunist party switcher, joins the Republican Party, and decides to drop his name in the hat early.

Now, John Kennedy has always been a fiscal conservative (something that is a positive for a state treasurer). However, what will be interesting are his social views (of which I currently am unaware). Will Republicans back a recent turncoat? Or will a traditional religious conservative (like Tony Perkins) enter the race and court enough of the Republican votes away from Kennedy.

Now, im not saying it would actually be Tony Perkins who would run, he only got 10% of the vote last time. And the Republican party has gotten its candidates “in line” previously (since in open primaries both Vitter and Jindal had no Republican opposition and won outright). However, because the winner of this election is not required to obtain a simple majority anymore, a weak 3rd party conservative could attract enough votes to allow Landrieu to win in the general election.