Why can’t they give a meaningful poll?
Friday, February 8th, 2008A recent poll claims that in a head to head matchup that Barack Obama has a better shot at beating John McCain than Hillary Clinton. The poll is a nationwide poll of likely voters. Barack beats McCain 48-41 while Hillary and McCain are tied at 46. I would guess that one reason for this is that while conservatives are undecided on if they could actually come out and support McCain against Obama, they are probably sure that they would vote for anybody against Hillary. This is one of the things that makes me lean towards Obama (though I still have yet to make up my mind).
The problem with the poll is this. It does not actually give meaningful results about what the actual election results would be! We do not choose our President based on who gets the most votes nationwide. The President is chosen via the electoral college. So telling me who gets the popular vote doesn’t give me a meaningful answer with such a close race. Why can’t the polling “experts” take a poll in each state (and in each congressional district in states that award electoral votes for winning congressional districts) and then determine who would get the electoral votes based on those poll numbers.
